Supply and Demand Analysis Indian Soy 30-Mar-2026
  • EPA RVO Final roll out Highlights
  • The Trump administration on Friday (27th Mar’26) finalized new biofuel blending volumes mandates for the U.S. oil refiners, requiring more of the fuels made from corn and other agricultural products than initially proposed, in an apparent win for farmers.
  • Based on EPA final rollout, BBD mandate for 2026 is pegged at 27% higher towards 8.86 billion RINS and with 70% reallocation the final BBD mandate is announced at 9.07 billion RINS.
  • As per latest announcement, Foreign feedstock is penalized with 50% RIN value from 2028 which makes us assume the current D4 RIN value at previous level of 1.6 thereby converting BBD mandate into 5.67 Billion gallons vs 5.61 Billion gallons (when RIN value is taken at 1.27) due to which there is no much deviation in final vs proposed volumes for 2026.
  • Similarly for 2027, BBD mandate is up by 23% from initial proposed mandate in RIN terms which is pegged at 9.2 vs 7.5 Billion Rins. In Gallon terms the BBD mandate is down by 2%.
  • On an overall tone, there is further clarity awaited on RIN value which needs to be cautiously eyed on.
  • This report is considered bearish as: The final mandate is not higher than proposed mandate + the reallocation quantity. Now there will be a competition between the domestic (mainly SBO) and imported feedstocks (mainly Chinese UCO &Brazilian Tallow).
  • However, the Iran war situation to be looked at as a factor of caution for any such bearishness.
  • Indian soy oil prices have remained volatile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Continued instability in the Middle East may disrupt import flows from South American origins, tightening domestic supply and supporting prices. However, any progress toward a ceasefire between the nations along with the upcoming U.S. EPA RVO mandate announcement could influence global sentiment and impact domestic soy oil prices.