TransGraph Consulting

Oct’26 Monthly Paper and Paperboards Executive Summary

Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • India’s paper and paperboard market continued its upward rally in Oct’26, with kraft paper prices increasing by INR 1–2/kg across regions in early October. Benchmark mill prices reached INR 40/kg in the West, INR 38/kg in the North, INR 44/kg in the East and INR 41.5/kg in the South. The rally was driven by tight domestic wastepaper availability, elevated OCC and energy costs, and strong festive demand from FMCG, e-commerce, food and retail sectors. Continued kraft paper exports to China and Bangladesh further tightened domestic availability, reinforcing upward price momentum.
  • Benchmark Duplex Board prices strengthened to around INR 52.5/kg in the West, supported by robust domestic demand and the continued extension of the Minimum Import Price (MIP) until March 2027.
  • The US recovered paper market remained firm in October, as Indian and Southeast Asian buyers resisted higher prices. US OCC prices remained stable at USD 230/ton following a sharp increase in Sep’26, while US Mixed Wastepaper (MWP) prices held at USD 145/ton. Domestic MWP and OCC prices increased to approximately INR 17.5/kg and INR 25/kg, respectively. Tight domestic RCP availability and stronger demand from packaging-intensive sectors continued to keep manufacturers overall cost base elevated.

Critical Analytics

  • Raw material costs and festive-season stocking demand remain the primary drivers of the Indian paper market in Oct’26. Limited domestic recovered-paper availability and elevated US recovered-paper prices, amid higher fiber retention by US mills, are constraining OCC availability and keeping input costs elevated. Meanwhile, EU recovered-paper prices have risen marginally amid firm demand, port congestion and higher freight charges.
  • Export demand for Indian kraft paper remains supportive, particularly from China and Bangladesh, although momentum has moderated from August–September levels. Improving demand from the textile, manufacturing and pharmaceutical sectors, is providing additional support to kraft paper consumption.
  • The TG Paper & Paperboard Demand Index is projected at 118 in OND’26, up 5.0% YoY, reflecting resilient manufacturing activity and festive procurement. The inverted GST structure, 18% on kraft paper vs 5% on corrugated boxes, also creates accumulated input tax credits and working-capital pressures, reinforcing the need to pass higher costs through to customers.

Outlook: Paper and paperboard prices are expected to remain firm and could increase by a further INR 1–2/kg through Oct’26, supported by strong demand from both domestic and export markets.

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Sep’26 Monthly Paper and Paperboards Executive Summary

Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • India’s paper and paperboard market continued its price rally in September 2026, with kraft paper prices increasing by INR 2–3/kg across regions. Current benchmark prices stand at INR 38/kg in the West, INR 37/kg in the North, INR 42/kg in the East and INR 38/kg in the South. This rally is supported by a sharp increase in OCC prices, strong pre-festive stocking demand, lower recovered-paper collection due to monsoon disruptions, firmer domestic wastepaper prices and increased kraft paper exports to China.
  • Duplex board prices strengthened to around INR 51.5/kg, supported by robust domestic demand and mill’s efforts to improve margins ahead of the MIP expiry in September 2026.
  • Raw material markets remained firm through September, with US OCC prices increasing to USD 230/ton from USD 205/ton, while US Mixed Wastepaper (MWP) prices rose to USD 145/ton from USD 135/ton. Correspondingly, imported MWP and OCC landed prices increased to approximately INR 18,460/ton and INR 27,973/ton, respectively. The rise reflects tighter global recovered-paper availability, reduced collection and stronger demand from packaging-intensive sectors, keeping the overall cost base for paper and paperboard manufacturers elevated.per availability and strong demand from packaging-intensive sectors.

Critical Analytics

  • Raw material costs and pre-festive stocking demand remain the key drivers of the Indian paper market in September. Monsoon-related disruptions have reduced domestic recovered-paper collection, while tighter global recovered-paper availability and higher fiber retention by US mills are limiting US OCC availability and keeping raw material costs elevated.
  • Export demand for Indian kraft paper remains supportive, particularly from China, although momentum has moderated from July–August levels. At the same time, improving packaging demand from the Morbi tile and ceramic cluster is providing additional support to kraft paper consumption.
  • Domestic demand is strengthening ahead of the festive season. The TG Paper & Paperboard Demand Index is projected at 119 in JAS’26, up 5.0% YoY, reflecting resilient manufacturing activity and pre-festive procurement. Stronger corrugated packaging demand is also supporting kraft paper consumption, with recent price increases being passed through to the corrugated-box market.

Outlook: Paper and paperboard prices are expected to remain firm and could increase by a further INR 1–2/kg through September 2026. Elevated OCC costs, tighter mill supplies, pre-festive packaging demand and continued export demand are expected to provide further upward support to kraft paper prices.

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Aug’26 Monthly Paper and Paperboards Executive Summary

Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • India’s paper and paperboard market is firm in early August 2026, with kraft paper prices increasing by INR 0.5–1.5/kg across regions (benchmark prices: West – INR 34.5/kg; North – INR 33/kg; East – INR 38.5/kg; South – INR 34/kg), supported by strong pre-festive stocking, healthy corrugated box demand, monsoon-related tightening in recovered paper collection, and firmer US OCC prices. Duplex board prices remained stable at around INR 49.5/kg, supported by balanced domestic demand and continued protection under the Minimum Import Price (MIP).
  • Raw material markets are expected to remain firm through August, with US OCC prices projected to increase to USD 203/ton, while US Mixed Wastepaper (MWP) prices are expected to rise slightly to USD 135/ton from USD 133/ton. Imported MWP and OCC landed prices are also projected to increase to INR 17,500/ton and INR 25,047/ton, respectively, reflecting tighter global recovered paper availability and strong demand from packaging-intensive sectors.

Critical Analytics

  • Raw material dynamics and pre-festive stocking demand remain the key drivers of the Indian paper market during August. Lower domestic recovered paper collection due to monsoon-related disruptions in India, along with lower OCC generation and higher domestic fiber retention by US mills, is constraining recovered paper availability and supporting firmer OCC prices.
  • However, stable EU recovered paper exports are expected to partly offset lower US availability, with India’s recovered paper imports estimated at 570 KT in August, broadly maintaining raw material availability for domestic mills.
  • On the demand side, the TG Paper & Paperboard Demand Index is projected at 119 during JAS’26, reflecting 5.0% YoY growth, supported by resilient manufacturing activity and pre-festive procurement. India’s Manufacturing IIP is also projected to increase to 130 in Aug’26 from 129 in Jul’26, while improving consumer durables and non-durables activity is expected to support packaging demand.

Outlook: Paper and paperboard prices are expected to increase by INR 2-3/kg through August. Monsoon-related reductions in recovered paper collection, elevated OCC costs and strong pre-festive packaging demand are expected to support paper and paperboard prices.

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Jul’26 Monthly Paper and Paperboards Executive Summary

Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • India’s paper and paperboard market remained stable to firm during July 2026, with kraft paper prices increasing by INR 500–1,000/ton across selected regions (North: INR 1,000/ton; East: INR 500/ton), supported by monsoon-related tightening in recovered paper collection and stronger corrugated box demand from the North India apple harvesting season.
  • Duplex board prices remained stable at around INR 49.5/kg, supported by balanced domestic demand and continued protection under the Minimum Import Price (MIP).
  • Raw material markets remained mixed during July, with US OCC prices holding steady at USD 200/ton after strengthening in June, while US Mixed Wastepaper (MWP) prices eased to USD 133/ton.

Critical Analytics

  • Raw material dynamics remained the key driver of the Indian paper market during July. Higher OCC prices, driven by monsoon-related declines in recovered paper collection and lower US export availability following North American containerboard capacity closures, kept fiber costs elevated and supported kraft paper price increases.
  • Meanwhile, stable EU recovered paper exports and improved logistics following the US–Iran ceasefire ensured adequate raw material availability for Indian mills.
  • On the demand side, the TG Paper & Paperboard Demand Index is projected at 116 during JAS’26, up from 113 in JAS’25, supported by stronger manufacturing activity, seasonal packaging demand, the North India apple harvesting season, and pre-festive inventory replenishment.

Outlook: Paper and paperboard prices are expected to remain stable to firm through July. Monsoon-related reductions in recovered paper collection, elevated OCC costs, and seasonal packaging demand are expected to support kraft paper prices, while balanced domestic demand and continued MIP protection should keep duplex board prices stable to firm.

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Jun’26 Monthly Paper and Paperboards Executive Summary

Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • The Paper and Paperboard market witnessed mixed trends in June’26, with kraft paper prices correcting by around INR 0.5–1.0/kg across selected mills due to subdued demand, cautious procurement activity and weaker export offtake. Duplex board and virgin paperboard prices remained largely stable during the month, supported by the extension of the Minimum Import Price (MIP) and controlled import competition.
  • The ongoing US–Iran peace negotiations have eased concerns regarding freight costs, energy prices, and supply chain disruptions, reducing the immediate risk of sharp increases in imported recovered paper and chemical costs. However, market participants remain cautious as geopolitical developments continue to be fluid.
  • On the demand side, packaging consumption remained weak following the completion of FMCG and summer stocking demand, with softer export offtake and elevated finished paper prices impacting buying activity. However, demand fundamentals remain healthy and are expected to improve gradually from July onward as seasonal restocking and export opportunities increase.

Critical Analytics

  • Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain the key market monitorable. While the recent US–Iran ceasefire and peace negotiations have eased concerns over freight costs and supply chain disruptions, any renewed escalation could quickly increase the landed cost of recovered paper, chemicals, and other imported inputs.
  • Imported OCC prices have strengthened to around USD 180/MT while mixed wastepaper prices have risen to USD 149/MT. Any further disruption in global shipping routes could accelerate recovered paper cost inflation and provide additional support to finished paper prices.
  • Domestic wastepaper collection during the monsoon season requires close monitoring, as lower collection volumes could tighten raw material availability and limit the extent of paper price corrections.
  • Extension of the Minimum Import Price (MIP) on Virgin Multi-Layer Paperboard until September 2026 remains supportive for domestic FBB producers and is expected to restrict low-priced imports from Indonesia and other competing origins.

Outlook: Paper and paperboard prices are expected to remain largely stable through June as easing geopolitical concerns offset weak seasonal demand. However, prices are likely to trend upward from July as monsoon-related disruptions reduce domestic recovered paper collection and tighten raw material availability.

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May’26 Monthly Paper and Paperboards Executive Summary

Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • The Paper and Paperboard market in May’26 has started witnessing a mild correction after the sharp rally seen during March–April, as subdued demand and cautious procurement activity weighed on market sentiment. Kraft paper prices eased by around INR 0.5/kg across select mills, while duplex board prices remained firm due to elevated wastepaper and freight costs.
  • Imported wastepaper prices showed initial signs of stabilization, with US OCC prices easing slightly from April highs, supported by improved export availability from the US. At the same time, domestic wastepaper availability improved due to higher collection and slower mill procurement, helping input costs stabilize after the earlier sharp increase.
  • On the demand side, the market entered a weaker seasonal phase following the completion of FMCG and summer stocking demand. Higher paper prices, coupled with softer export demand and cautious buying behavior, have started impacting domestic consumption, especially in price-sensitive packaging segments. However, gradual recovery is expected in the second half of the year as supply conditions normalize and export opportunities improve.

Critical Analytics

  • Imported OCC price direction (USD 172–175/MT range) will be the key monitorable for June, as any further easing can accelerate kraft paper price correction across regions.
  • Domestic wastepaper collection during monsoon onset needs close tracking, as lower collection volumes could tighten supply and restrict downside in paper prices.
  • Demand recovery from FMCG, beverages, and packaging sectors will determine whether mills can sustain current price levels or continue volume-led corrections
  • China’s low-cost paper exports and excess capacity remain a structural risk to Indian mills, limiting pricing power in both domestic and export markets
  • Duplex board policy support through MIP extension remains a major factor to watch, as any relaxation could sharply increase import competition and pressure domestic prices

Outlook: Kraft paper prices expected to soften further by INR 1-1.5/Kg , with mills prioritizing volume over price. OCC range bound at USD 172-175/MT assuming no further Hormuz escalation. Duplex Board prices are likely to remain firm, supported by the continued extension of the Minimum Import Price (MIP) and stable domestic demand.

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Apr’26 Monthly Paper and Paperboards Executive Summary

Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • The Paper and Paperboard market in April’26 is characterized by a cost-push driven uptrend, with prices witnessing a sharp increase driven by rising input costs and ongoing geopolitical disruptions impacting global supply chains. Kraft paper and duplex board prices have increased by ₹3–4/kg, reflecting the pass-through of higher wastepaper, energy, and freight costs.
  • Raw material prices, particularly imported wastepaper, continued to firm up amid supply tightness, while domestic prices stabilized at elevated levels, indicating demand resistance. At the same time, energy costs remain high, with elevated coal and power costs further pushing production expenses upward, resulting in margin pressure across mills.
  • On the demand side, consumption has started showing signs of softening, as higher prices weigh on domestic demand, especially in price-sensitive segments. While seasonal demand supported the market in earlier months, the post-season slowdown and cautious procurement behavior are now becoming evident.

Critical Analytics

  • Geopolitical disruptions & freight volatility (Red Sea / Hormuz, BDI): Continued tensions remain a key driver of elevated freight rates and supply chain uncertainty, directly impacting imported wastepaper costs and keeping landed prices volatile
  • Wastepaper price dynamics (Imported vs Domestic): Imported prices remain firm due to supply tightness, while domestic prices have stabilized at elevated levels—monitoring this spread is critical to assess cost pass-through and procurement strategies
  • Energy cost trends (coal, power tariffs): Elevated coal prices and recent power tariff hikes are sustaining high production costs, making energy a key determinant of mill margins and pricing decisions
  • Demand-side signals (FMCG, packaging, exports): Early signs of demand softening, especially post-season and in export-linked segments, will be crucial in determining the sustainability of recent price hikes

Outlook: Paper and paperboard prices are expected to stabilize with a slight softening bias in the near term, as the sharp cost-push rally seen in March–April begins to ease. While input costs—particularly wastepaper and energy—remain elevated, improving availability of raw materials and easing supply constraints are likely to limit further upside. Demand is expected to soften in AMJ’26 due to higher price levels and post-season slowdown, leading to cautious procurement by buyers. However, as supply chains normalize and demand gradually recovers in JAS’26, prices are likely to stabilize and witness gradual recovery, supported by improving packaging demand and export opportunities, keeping the overall market balanced between cost pressures and demand-side resistance.

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Monthly Recording

Mar’26 Monthly Paper and Paperboards Executive Summary

Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • The Paper and Paperboard market in March’26 reflects a transition from stable to cost-driven pricing, with recent firmness emerging due to rising freight costs and geopolitical disruptions impacting imported wastepaper supply chains.
  • Prices remained largely stable through early 2026, with kraft paper showing slight firmness and duplex board stabilizing after earlier corrections; however, recent input cost escalation is beginning to push prices upward. Raw material trends indicate recovery, with imported OCC and domestic wastepaper prices moving upward, supported by improved mill demand and tightening supply conditions.
  • Demand showed seasonal strength in JFM’26, driven by manufacturing activity across FMCG, beverages, and consumer segments, though a slight moderation is expected in AMJ’26 post peak-season demand. India’s continued dependence on imported fibre (~50%), along with rising freight and energy costs, keeps the market highly exposed to global supply dynamics and cost fluctuations.

Critical Analytics

  • Freight rates & Baltic Dry Index (BDI): Sustained increase will directly elevate landed wastepaper costs and influence domestic price revisions
  • Geopolitical risks (Red Sea / Hormuz routes): Key to tracking supply disruptions, insurance premiums, and shipment delays impacting imports
  • Packaging demand indicators (FMCG, beverages, e-commerce, pharma): Core sectors driving paper demand; trends here will determine consumption outlook
  • Energy and input cost trends (coal, freight, currency): Incremental cost pressures that can influence pricing decisions across mills

Outlook: Paper and paperboard prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by elevated input costs, particularly imported wastepaper and freight. While demand may soften marginally in AMJ’26 following the peak season, limited downside is expected due to continued cost pressures. As supply conditions stabilize and demand recovers in JAS’26, prices are likely to trend upward gradually, supported by improved packaging demand and export opportunities, indicating a sustained cost-push driven pricing environment.

Monthly Report

Monthly Recording

Feb’26 Monthly Paper and Paperboards Executive Summary

Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • The Paper and Paperboard market remained largely stable in February 2026, with prices consolidating after the January adjustments. Kraft paper prices held steady across most regions, with selective firmness seen in the South, while duplex board prices stabilized following the earlier correction. Raw material trends showed firmness, with domestic OCC at INR 18.5/kg and US OCC rising to USD 170/ton. Additionally, India’s recovered wastepaper imports rebounded in FY26 (Jan–Oct up 18.8% YoY), reinforcing continued reliance on global fiber markets. Rising energy costs, particularly coking coal, have added incremental cost pressure entering Q1 CY26.
  • Demand indicators improved entering JFM’26, supported by stronger manufacturing momentum across FMCG, beverages, consumer durables, and pharma. The reduction in US tariffs from 25% to 18% is expected to support export-linked packaging demand, improving order visibility. Overall, market sentiment has strengthened compared to early January, with stable supply and improving downstream activity providing a supportive near-term backdrop.

Critical Analytics

  • The demand environment is showing gradual structural strengthening, with the projected rise in the paper and paperboard demand index in JFM’26 indicating improved packaging consumption. Since manufacturing drives nearly 78% of India’s IIP, seasonal production acceleration is translating into better dispatch volumes and order flows. However, imports continue to account for a significant portion of recovered fiber demand, underscoring structural dependence on overseas supply.
  • At the same time, input cost risks are building. Firm US recovered paper prices and elevated energy costs could tighten mill margins if not offset by price pass-through. While domestic collection has improved moderately, the supply-demand balance remains sensitive to global wastepaper availability and currency movements, keeping cost-side volatility relevant for the coming months.

Outlook: Kraft paper and duplex board prices are expected to remain range-bound with a mild upward bias in the near term, supported by improving packaging demand and firm input costs. Any sustained rise in wastepaper or energy prices could prompt selective upward revisions, while continued manufacturing strength will be key to maintaining pricing stability through Q1 CY26.

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Monthly Recording

Jan’26 Monthly Paper and Paperboards Executive Summary

Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • The Paper and Paperboard market experienced stable demand conditions in December 2025, marked by flat prices and mild movement in raw material prices, with overall improved market sentiment. Imported wastepaper prices inched slightly higher while domestic wastepaper prices have also increased by INR 1,000 per ton.
  • From fundamental perspective, raw material availability improved meaningfully during H1 FY26. On a year-to-date basis, India’s recovered wastepaper imports increased by around 25% YoY, reflecting improved global supply dynamics. In the USA, domestic consumption of wastepaper anticipated to increase in the months ahead amid colder weather tightening availability. Collectively, these factors are expected to contribute to near-term pricing support for wastepaper and increase cost for domestic paper mills.

Critical Analytics

  • Demand growth in the packaging paper segment continues to be underpinned by diversified end-use applications and the increasing shift toward recycled materials, reinforcing a structurally positive demand outlook. However, the anticipated rise in domestic supply driven by weak export performance of kraft paper introduces a potential imbalance. However, the growing use of secondary paper products may partially mitigate the loss of external demand.
  • It is anticipated that the pickup in manufacturing of FMCG, beverages, consumer durables, and pharmaceuticals sector during January’26 is likely to be supported from packaging materials consumption growth. At the same time, a temporary tightening in wastepaper supply will provide near-term pricing support for paper and paperboards. However, the sustainability of this price momentum remains contingent on the persistence of supply constraints and the pace of demand recovery across these sectors.

Outlook: Kraft paper prices are likely to consolidate around the INR 33,500/ton level in the near term, with a gradual upside bias toward INR 34,500/ton by January 2026. The price trajectory is expected to be supported by a seasonal pickup in demand and improving downstream consumption trends.

Monthly Report

Monthly Recording